But whats new?

For kicks, I decided to watch the History Channel’s special “Nostradamus: 2012″, which examines Nostradamus’ predictions, and how they relate to the year 2012. And hoo boy, was it filled with quackery and bad science. This isn’t unusual for the History Channel, alternating between marvelous fact-based examinations of our history, and… shows like this, usually dealing one of three subjects: UFOs and ancient cultures, strange disappearances and events, and prophecies.

While I am all for an examination of prophecies and predictions made in the past, I think it is utterly foolish to suppose there is anything but metaphorical truth in them. They should be examined as windows into the psyche and culture in which they were made, demonstrations of the values of the people that made them. In terms of an archaeological and anthropological perspective, prophecies of doom are beautiful windows into how the people of the time thought. Or in the case of Nostradamus, illustrative of various subtle political issues researchers may not otherwise be aware of. (Nostradamus made his prophecies tough to decipher to avoid accusations of witchcraft, a very lethal accusation in his era.)

But lets take a look at the special itself, and why it really has no fact-based relevance.

They go over some quick facts, like the Mayan calendar and the galactic alignment. Yes, the point at which the Mayan calendar stops counting is the same time of the galactic alignment. But the reason for this, is because the Mayans were phenomenal astronomers. They were able to calculate the precise amount of time since the last galactic alignment, and used that as their calendar. They based the starting point of their calendar on a easily provable astronomical event. They set their calendar to “roll over”, like in an odometer reaching 999,999 km, at the next galactic alignment. The problem here is that some people decided that the Mayan calendar “ends” at this point, and thus it is quite momentous. Possibly even a prophecy. The show features lots of specious logic like, “Well, they could have made a longer calendar, so choose this data to end on, it must have some importance!” We’re humans. We find patterns in lots of things where there is no pattern. We’re easily fooled, and mix up correlation and causation. The facts are simple: the Mayans were brilliant astronomers, they tied their calendar to the last galactic alignment, and their calendar “rolls over” on the next galactic alignment. Without more facts, one cannot suppose more meaning into the Mayan calendar than is there. I, for one, have not seen any dire warnings encoded by the Mayans. No prophecies. In the absence of evidence, one cannot suppose a greater meaning to the way their calendar works Nothing of the like, but you are free to correct me if I’m wrong!

From there, they go off into… well, utter speculation. They show various prophecies from different cultures, drawings by Nostradamus, his predictions, and try to draw some very dire warnings. The problem, however, is that there is no basis for the conclusions made. Its all unfounded speculation, filled with calls to ancient wisdom, what if they’re right, and spooky coincidences. Again, this is not science. This is not fact. This sort of thing does not belong on the History Channel.

While prophecies, and spooky coincidences, and ancient wisdom all make for good and fun fiction, they make bad science.

But the clearest descriptor of the issues with the special can be found in this little quote from one of the “scientists” (really a literature doctorate… not a scientists but a scholar – a big difference!), “with a new spirituality-based science[...]“.

Yeah. He said it. Spirituality-based science. Thats like saying cold-based heat, or communist-inspired capitalism, or peace-based war. They are inherent contradictions. Spirituality, religion, whatever, even atheism, has no place in science. Do you know why? Because they are not science. Anything thats not science has no business being mixed with science. Unfounded speculation, and fear mongering are not science. Wishful thinking, praying, and divine visions are not science.

There was also lots of talk about a galactic super wave, that will strike the earth during the galactic alignment. There is no proof of any such wave happening, even in the past. They make reference to the die-off after the last ice-age, and the “scientist” speaking at the time just assumes with no proof that this is due to a galactic super death wave. (Actually that sounds like a good death metal band name: “Galactic Super Death Wave”…) There is no backup to this theory, no geological evidence. There is a die-off after the last glaciation event (wikipedia is persnickety about calling it a glaciation event rather than an ice-age), but there is no explanation for this die-off, with many theories still being considered that explain the die-off. This kind of speculation and assuming just makes the History Channel look bad, as… its the very area they deal in!

But again, its not the lowest point for the History Channel… but it is still very disappointing.